US yields rise after strong services sector data

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US services sector activity jumped to 1-1/2-year high
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Expectations for another 50 bps rate cut remain lower than a week ago
(Updates as of 1442 EDT)
By Matt Tracy
WASHINGTON, Oct 3 – U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday after strong services sector data supported forecasts for a smaller interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting than in September.
U.S. services sector activity jumped to a 1-1/2-year high in September, accelerating to its highest level since February 2023, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers index released Thursday.
Yields on U.S. government bonds rose following this and other economic data released on Thursday. U.S. 10-year yields climbed to their highest since Sept. 3 and were last up 5.3 basis points at 3.841%.
Initial jobless claims figures, also released on Thursday, showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly more than expected last week.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose to its highest since Sept. 18 and was last up 5.7 bps at 3.705%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was last at a positive 13.7 bps, little changed from 13.6 bps late Wednesday.
The market has gone back and forth in recent days over the extent of an expected second Fed rate cut at its November meeting, following its 50 bp cut last month. Expectations for a 25 bp cut at the Fed’s November meeting inched higher following the data, with markets pricing in a 65% chance, with a 35% chance of 50 bps priced in, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
“The market is trying ever so carefully to price out a 50 bp rate cut, but it’s not fully priced out yet,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale.
Rising yields on Thursday followed a dip earlier in the week when investors sought the safety of Treasuries after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel in escalating Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, a strike at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, which began on Tuesday and is now in its third day, also poses an inflation risk.
“Military conflicts are inflationary, and there’s a good relationship between oil prices and yield moves,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at asset manager Brandywine Global. “When it comes to the port strikes, that’s a wild card.”
Market participants are most focused on the Friday release of the government’s more comprehensive payrolls and employment report for September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have signaled the central bank’s primary focus has shifted from combating inflation to ensuring a stable labor market.
“There is some selling that’s taking place in front of the nonfarm payroll number tomorrow,” said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income trading at Curvature Securities.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.141%, 0.017% higher than Wednesday’s close of 2.124%.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.213%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2% a year for the next decade. That was about 0.004% below its Wednesday level.
(Reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Jonathan Oatis)